Let's speak now with Arcadi Ostroski who
is the Russian and Eastern Europe editor
for the Economist. Thanks very much for
joining us. Um firstly your
interpretation of what we saw overnight
in Kev.
Well, this is Putin um clearly
escalating um the um you know his war in
Ukraine um while um keeping uh President
Trump bay and and placating him um and
pretending to negotiate with Putin.
Negotiations is just a a stage another
stage in the war. I mean he's quite
agnostic in terms of whether it's war or
peace. uh he wants to achieve his goals.
He wants to undermine it's not, you
know, as far as he sees it, it's not
really uh a war against Ukraine. He sees
it as the war against uh the West. Um he
is uh dismantling or you know trying to
dismantle the uh transatlantic security.
Um and everything is collateral damage
to him. So um he wants to do it one way
or another. uh and he's basically uh
signaling that um it will have to be on
his terms.
>> The response from the UK so far is to
call in the Russian ambassador which I
would see as as not really good enough
at this stage.
>> I wish they didn't do that.
>> Why?
>> I wish Well, I wish because it made it's
it's laughable, frankly. It's just
laughable. And I'm sure there will be
quite a few smiles uh and this will
become a meme um that uh Russia has been
punished by being denied coffee uh as as
you said in your report. I mean
basically the way I see it is better not
to do that uh because it's just becomes
um you know empty words. It devalues
things. Britain has been incredibly
strong uh certainly in you know the
start of the war in diplomatically and
in terms of weapons. But you know what
are these empty gestures supposed to say
other than oh Vladimir Putin could you
please stop killing civilians and stop
doing you know conducting this war that
you've been doing for 30 it's very very
naughty you really shouldn't be doing
this um this actually I think it's
counterproductive in that it's this sort
of uh protocol
uh diplomacy
um is seen in Moscow as a sign of
weakness
uh it would be almost better not to do
that. Um and you know it's clear sign
that um as you suggested your reports uh
you know everybody's talking about you
know got to stop the war. um you know
the Europeans and and Britain uh you
know addressing Trump saying you know
this is really bad you know you've got
to do something about it and and uh the
truth is it does stop with with Trump
and and with Putin and with Zilinski um
but the leverage is very weak the
leverage the America's leverage over
Putin is is quite weak and the way I see
it is that Putin is actually using um
Trump um as leverage and using Trump as
a lever uh to put pressure on Ukraine.
Remember uh it's important to remember
that Putin has not been able to achieve
his goals by military means. Um you know
in the past um
uh you know two years they've taken
about 1% of Ukrainian territory. And so
Putin knows that he is also running out
of resources. And now he's using Trump
basically to get to where he couldn't
get militarily.
Um it is a um really uh astonishing
uh situation where um you know America
is doing almost trying you know doing
Putin's bidding. uh Europe and and
Britain are drafting plans which uh to
put security guarantees into Ukraine and
maybe even troops if Vladimir Putin
stops the war. Well, guess what?
He's not going to do that.
>> With regards to our response, we've seen
sanctions put on already. We've seen
this coalition of the willing that
Karma's trying to um trying to push
really and the idea of sort of
peacekeeping troops on the ground have
been floated. What more is in our armory
in terms of the UK and the EU response?
Is it a case of I mean actually
expelling Russian diplomats altogether
or is that mere is is that sort of mere
gesture? I mean, no. I mean, the the um
the only meaningful uh stuff is is the
money uh and increasing military
production, sending more to Ukraine,
providing um uh air defenses,
paying for those air defenses. Uh
really, you know, we've been in this war
for three and a half years.
British industry and European industry
have started to increase their
production. Um but it's not nearly
enough. I mean the idea you know they
help with money. Um the the European and
help has been equal actually to to
Americans but the response should have
been arm Ukraine and give it enough
quickly enough uh to stop this. I think
you know in terms of sanctions they're
not going to make the slightest
difference uh at this stage. I mean the
only thing that will make a difference
and nobody can quite achieve it is to
cut Russia's oil and gas revenues. Uh
but that's going to be virtually
impossible because you you know it's
it's a commodity which is very hard to
uh to sanction.
>> But in terms of the Russian assets is
there anything more there the sort of
frozen frozen Russian assets? No, it's
it's
>> well again we've been talking, you know,
we've been talking for how many years
now uh about what to do with $300
billion that been frozen Russian uh and
central bank assets. Those uh frozen
assets are still sitting there while
everybody procrastinating thinking, oh,
is this legal? Is it not legal? You
know, how do we you know, what do we do
with this money? Uh Putin broke
international law. You know, this war is
illegal. uh and uh we're still thinking
about whether it's legal or not legal to
transfer the money which would have been
very material help uh to Ukraine of $300
billion
uh which would have allowed it to
purchase a lot more weapon, a lot more
um air defenses because there are two
wars going on. There is a war on the
battlefield which has been pretty static
um in the war of attrition and there is
a war in Ukrainian cities.
>> Armies can't do that. That's what air
defenses do. And making statements while
to make the statements and expressions
of concern are there to make ourselves
feel better rather than actually uh help
Ukraine.
>> What do you think the response from
Donald Trump is going to be on this?
because he I mean I played a little bit
earlier on before you before you joined
where he was talking about he sort of
uses this line that he has a good chat
with President Putin over the phone and
then he feels not humiliated but he
feels very angry afterwards. Melania
Trump has clearly been in his ear um and
seems to be one of the people actually
guiding him with with her um utterances
on it. But is he going to feel
embarrassed in any way?
No, I think um his response
um is not going frankly I don't think
that we're going to see much uh action
from Donald Trump in terms of putting
pressure on Putin. Uh partly because he
knows that actually he doesn't have as I
said that much leverage. I mean the only
thing he can do really it's not going to
be about money. It's not going to be
about sanctions. The only thing he can
do is say, "Look, I'm going to dial up
to 11 uh and I'm going to allow American
um you know, planes take out um the you
know, basically to start providing
direct military assistance." That's not
going to happen. So I think his response
if I understand what he's doing
correctly and I might not u but his
response is going to be to put pressure
on Vladimir Zalinski
and the pressure is going to be on
Zalinski to agree to some of Putin's
demands to give up some of the territory
uh and possibly call early elections and
to step down. Uh that's what he is going
to do. um hoping that that will be and
it's not illogical. What he's doing is
not illogical at all. Hoping that Putin
can actually leave with um taking some
of the territory which he said he was
going to liberate inverted commas in in
eastern Ukraine
uh and and see Zilinski leave office and
and see the the change of government. Uh
this is actually what happened in
another war. Um
uh this is what happened in Finland in
1944 at the end of the uh Second World
War. Um when basically Finland uh had to
sign a peace deal with the Soviet Union,
uh seeded some territory, uh pledged not
to join Western alliances, um but
actually then did build most successful
country in Europe. Europe. I mean I
think you know there are there are too
many things here but uh I think Putin um
I I think Putin probably does actually
want to uh end this phase of his global
battle um against the west because he's
also running out of you know tanks and
he is costing Russian economy a lot. Um
but Trump will put pressure on Zalinski
basically to satisfy Putin that he can
um he can stop the active phase of the
war. That's what I think he's going to
do. I'm really grateful for your time.
Thank you for joining us.